According to data from the well-known decentralized prediction site Polymarket, the probability of an XRP ETF being authorized in 2025 has risen to 70%. Importantly, the poll started four days ago. Ever since, the cryptocurrency world has been placing heavy bets on the XRP product’s potential to launch this year. This most recent result represents a tremendous 20% increase over the past day. An earlier survey released at the beginning of the month also asked about the likelihood of XRP ETF approval by July 31, 2025. According to this survey, the current probability is 49%.
Optimism Around XRP ETF
On the other hand, others in the community predict that the odds of the recent survey showing a 70% likelihood will increase to 100% by the conclusion of the first quarter of this year. After a crypto-friendly U.S. administration took office and SEC chairman Paul Atkins was appointed, investors remain confident in an XRP ETF.
The SEC is presently investigating four proposals for XRP exchange-traded funds. 21Shares, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Bitwise are among the prominent asset managers that have introduced these XRP products. In October 2024, Bitwise was the first to open its floor, and others followed soon after. Many in the community are hopeful that the new leadership at the SEC will be more receptive to the XRP investment products than Gary Gensler was.
Altcoins See Significant ETF Betting Odds
Interestingly enough, crypto market participants are wagering on more than just the XRP ETF. Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Solana ETFs have entries for ongoing betting odds on the Polymarket platform. Notably, the likelihood of Solana ETF acceptance in 2025 has increased by 32%, bringing the current probabilities to 82%. Simultaneously with the launch of the current 70% positive XRP ETF poll, this one also went live.
Members of the community seem to have more faith in Solana ETF and XRP ETF if you will. With ETF approval odds of 23% for Dogecoin and 42% for Litecoin, market players appear to view the advent of their ETFs in 2025 as quite unlikely.
Summary
Commenting on the ongoing betting frenzy, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed amazement that people can now bet on several altcoin ETF approvals. “What a country,” he said. He added that he’s not sure if he agrees with these odds, but for the record, there are no active 19b-4 filings for any of these ETFs yet, and typically, it takes 240 days for approval—meaning it would be beyond July. However, he acknowledged that the new SEC leadership could act faster.
FAQs
Why has the XRP ETF approval likelihood increased recently?
The likelihood surged by 20% in the past day, fueled by increased bets and optimism in the crypto community.
Which companies have proposed XRP ETFs?
Asset managers like 21 Shares, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Bitwise are proposing XRP ETFs.
What is the market sentiment around other altcoin ETFs?
Market participants are also betting on ETFs for Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin, with Solana's odds reaching 82%.
What does Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas think about these ETF odds?
Eric Balchunas finds the betting on altcoin ETF approvals surprising, noting the lack of active filings for these products.
